Thursday, June 16, 2011

Not Yet to Coming Soon: Is Facebook pressing the Panic Button?

A little more than a fortnight ago, at the eG8 Forum in Paris, Mark Zuckerberg was asked whether Facebook was going to bring out its IPO soon, and he said "Not yet."


In the beginning of the week, June 13th to be precise, it was reported that “Facebook is expected to file for $100 Billion IPO this year. (http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-ipo-could-come-in-q1-2012-after-october-filing--cnbc-reports-2011-6 )

What changed within a fortnight? What is it that turned the outright rejection of the idea of an IPO by its CEO into an announcement by the company specifying even the amount it intended to raise through the IPO.

A few hours before this announcement, I read an article titled “Facebook Is Losing Users in the Countries Where It Took off First”

(http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-is-losing-users-in-the-countries-where-it-took-off-first-2011-6  )

With a drop of nearly 6 million users in the U.S, an 8% drop in users in Canada and nearly a 100, 000 in Norway, Russia and the U.K., Facebook has a reason to worry. Is it reaching a saturation point with the users? This is the second month in a row with slower than normal rates.

More importantly, is Facebook pressing the panic button. Is this the reason why the “Not yet” by Mark Zuckerberg on the Facebook IPO turned into a “Coming Soon”.

A few questions that arise in my mind:

• In marketing parlance/ BCG Matrix terms, is Facebook trying to milk the cash cow as much as it can before it turns into a Dog?

• When any product which becomes a brand overnight reaches the Maturity stage of the PLC (Product Life Cycle), does it start cashing in as much as it can?

I leave it to the marketing geniuses around me to answer and enlighten me with examples. I believe it will make an interesting case study for B-School students.